Northern Illinois Defense

Key Findings

The signal that's hard to see scrolling a spreadsheet — tendency married to what actually worked.

Cover 3 rotates to the boundary

MEDIUM

Their Cover 3 rotated boundary 2-to-1. Boundary rotation allowed 2.0 yds / 13% success / 0 explosives. The same call to the field allowed 6.0 yds / 40%. Invisible at the "Cover 3" family level.

"Pressure" splits in two

MEDIUM

True LB/DB blitzes worked — 1.9 yds allowed. But their DL stunts (their most-used look) gave up the most yards of any pressure (5.7). Movement alone didn't disrupt.

1st down & series openers are softest

MEDIUM

1st down allowed 6.8 yds / 44%. On the first snap of a series: 91% Over-G, 73% Cover 3, 0 blitzes — pure base before they get exotic.

Explosives came against man

MEDIUM

5 of 8 explosive plays came vs. man or non-base coverage (Cover 1, 1-Hole, the STUBBIE checks). None came against boundary-rotated Cover 3.

2nd down is the blitz down

HIGH

True blitzes spike on 2nd down — 39%, higher than 3rd. On 1st down it's almost all line stunts (1 real blitz in 30 snaps).

The TRIPS zero-blitz tell

LOW · n=3

Every TRIPS look on 3rd/4th-and-medium drew the identical Outlaw M-Mug + Arrows+FSDog Cover-0 blitz. Predictable by formation — though it largely held in this game.

Pre-Snap Tells — If / Then

The decisions, up front: see it → expect it → do it. Confidence carries from the findings. (Attack lines are interpretation.)

Trips, 3rd/4th & medium

LOW · n=3

THENOutlaw M-Mug front + Arrows+FSDog behind Cover 0 (zero blitz) — the same call every time it showed.

DOMax-protect + one quick hot / sight-adjust to the single — or stay out of trips here and dictate a different look.

2nd down

HIGH

THENTheir real LB/DB blitz spikes to 39% — their most aggressive down (higher than 3rd).

DOCarry a 2nd-down pressure check: quick game, screen, or a sight-adjust. Don’t get caught in a long dropback.

You declare into the boundary (FIB)

LOW-MED

THENThey soften — pressure drops to 38% and they sit mostly in Cover 3.

DOBank the easy completions and run into the lighter box; use it to stay on schedule.

You cross midfield / enter the red zone

MEDIUM

THENMan (Cover 1) and zero climb and the field tightens.

DOMan-beaters loaded (rubs/crossers/fades). And attack the field-rotated Cover 3 (6.0/40%), never the boundary rotation (2.0/13%).

Situational Call Sheet — starter

NIU’s look by situation (computed from the snaps) paired with the attack (interpretation). Concept-level / system-agnostic — translate into your terms. One game; small samples flagged.

Situation	n	NIU top coverage	Pressure	Blitz	▸ Attack (interpretation)

Live Tendency & Efficiency Explorer

Filter by any situation. Coverage mix, pressure, yards allowed and success rate all recompute from the actual snaps — nothing is pre-written.

1st down 2nd down 3rd down Red zone TRIPS ↺ Reset

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Snaps

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Net yds / play

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Offense success

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Pressure rate

Coverage family mix (filtered)

Pressure type (filtered)

Matching snaps (0) — the rows behind the numbers:

Dn-Dist	Fld	R/P	Form	Coverage	Front	Press	Yds

Coverage — Tendency × Efficiency

What they call, and what it gave up. (Net yds / success rate on non-penalty plays.)

By coverage family

Cover 3 rotation

the un-flattened split

Same coverage, opposite outcomes: boundary rotation is their wall; the field rotation is the soft version of the exact same call.

Explosive Plays Allowed

Pass ≥15 / run ≥12 yds. Each row is a real snap you can pull on film.

Yds	Type	Dn-Dist	Field	Coverage	Offense form	Pressure

AI Coordinator's Read

How we'd attack them — the weekly deliverable, in plain coordinator language.

⚑ Interpretation — opinion, not fact. Every recommendation ties to a finding above; overrule any of it with your own eyes.

1. Make their Cover 3 rotate to the field, then attack the field.

Boundary C3 = 2.0 yds/13%; field C3 = 6.0 yds/40%. Pull the rotation with field sets/motion and live in field-side flood, curl-flat, and the seam behind the rotation.

2. Stay committed to the run.

Run 5.2 yds / 48% vs pass 4.1 / 28%. Their DL stunts gave up the most yards of any look (5.7) — gap-scheme runs that account for the movement were the most reliable yards in the game.

3. Be aggressive on 1st down and the opening snap of every drive.

1st down 6.8 / 44%, and the first snap of a series is pure base with zero blitz. Script your shots for the down you can predict.

4. Keep man-beaters loaded.

5 of 8 explosives came vs man/non-base; Cover 1 allowed 6.4 / 44%. Man climbs in plus territory and the red zone — prioritize rubs/crossers/switch verticals there.

5. Neutralize 2nd down.

Their true-blitz down (39%), and it held (3.0 / 24%). Carry a 2nd-down pressure check — quick game, sight adjusts, screens — to keep 2nd down out of 3rd-and-long.

+ The TRIPS 3rd/4th-medium tell — weaponize or avoid (your call).

Predictable zero-blitz by formation+down (LOW, n=3; held this game). Either trap it with max-protect + a quick beater, or stay out of trips there to dictate a different look.

Defensive Identity

Key Findings

Cover 3 rotates to the boundary

"Pressure" splits in two

1st down & series openers are softest

Explosives came against man

2nd down is the blitz down

The TRIPS zero-blitz tell

Pre-Snap Tells — If / Then

Trips, 3rd/4th & medium

2nd down

You declare into the boundary (FIB)

You cross midfield / enter the red zone

Situational Call Sheet — starter

Live Tendency & Efficiency Explorer

Coverage — Tendency × Efficiency

By coverage family

Cover 3 rotation

Pressure & Down

By pressure type

By down

Explosive Plays Allowed

AI Coordinator's Read

1. Make their Cover 3 rotate to the field, then attack the field.

2. Stay committed to the run.

3. Be aggressive on 1st down and the opening snap of every drive.

4. Keep man-beaters loaded.

5. Neutralize 2nd down.

+ The TRIPS 3rd/4th-medium tell — weaponize or avoid (your call).

Every Charted Snap